Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
